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FRIEND-Water P3 Workshop/training series - Session 4 "Constructing and Communicating Regional Climate Change Scenarios"
Constructing and Communicating Regional Climate Change Scenarios [Prof T Shepherd; University of Reading, UK]

Climate scenarios are generally understood as global scenarios, expressed either as SSP-RCPs or as global warming levels. At the regional scale, however, such scenarios are insufficiently informative for risk assessment, since there is considerable uncertainty in the regional response to climate change, not least because of the important role of atmospheric circulation. Although there is a natural desire to represent risk probabilistically — some scientists even define risk in terms of a probability — the complexity of the risk landscape suggests that more targeted and process-oriented explorations of the uncertainty space could be more informative, and more useful for decision-making. This has led to the emergence of what are called storyline approaches to understanding and quantifying environmental risk, which involve the development of regional climate change scenarios. Yet the question of probability cannot be entirely ducked, not least because many regulatory requirements are couched in terms of return periods. In this talk I reflect on how probabilistic and storyline approaches can be considered together to address such issues, taking a general perspective but illustrated with hydrological examples.

Jul 6, 2022 03:00 PM in London

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